The Lakers won the Western Conference today, a result that seemed unfathomable after those two bad losses to Charlotte and Memphis in March. The rest of the playoff picture isn't set, and there really are no easy matchups. I'm terrified of Utah and Phoenix, and don't really want to play San Antonio either (though they are looking old and vulnerable), but I can wait one more day to figure out what the path to the Finals will look like. I'll find out if I can win my fantasy league too. However things shape up, this should be one of the best NBA playoffs ever.
For the past few months, ever since the Laker injuries started piling up, I've been trying to distance myself from this team and not get too invested in this year. After all, there is a real possibility that Bynum may be done for the season, and Ariza is probably not coming back. Kobe is playing with 4 fingers on his shooting hand and his accuracy from the perimeter has noticeably tanked. Fisher has a torn tendon in his foot. And we still have Luke Walton. There's no sense getting too caught up in this year when the next few years will really show us what this team can do.
How good can the Lakers be next year? Even if Bynum never returns as he was this year, a very real possibility given the sorry Lakers medical staff, his floor is something like Andris Biedrins. Add a Biedrins to this squad to toughen up the post defense and the defensive rebounding, and you are looking at a 60 win team. Add back in Ariza - who has a history of foot problems, so might not be able to recover his athleticism, but is still a significant upgrade over Luke Walton - and I think this team could win 62-65 games.
Now, what if the Lakers sign Kwame Brown as a free agent this offseason for 2 years, $4.5M, a cake to throw at Rony Turiaf, and a guarantee that his coach won't meow at him anymore? I think Kwame can be had for that price because the rest of the league thinks he sucks. But he knows the Lakers system, has good chemistry here, and is an underrated post defender and rebounder. Matched up against second-string centers, he can be extremely effective (and was playing very well last season before his injuries). Plus, Kwame is always good to liven up the locker room, even if he likes practical jokes more than basketball.
Let's look at best-case scenario, then. What if Bynum returns and is healthy and explosive, like this year? What if we hire the Phoenix medical staff to fix Ariza's foot, and he is rejuvenated like Grant Hill? What if the Lakers sign a healthy Kwame Brown, an unquestionable upgrade over DJ Mbenga? Here is the Lakers roster:
Starters: Derek Fisher (maybe Jordan Farmar by next year), Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol
Reserves: Farmar/Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, Kwame Brown, Trevor Ariza, Rony Turiaf, Vladimir Radmanovic, Luke Walton
That is a team that goes 12 deep, with a phenomenal first unit AND second unit, with an excellent backup at every position. Against a big team like San Antonio, the Lakers can go big with Bynum, Gasol, Odom, Kwame, Turiaf. Against a smaller team, the Lakers can bring in Ariza to shadow the perimeter guys and Sasha/Vlad for extra shooting. That is TWELVE guys who can play (okay, 11 if you take out Luke Walton). Most guys on the bench can play several positions, adding quite a bit of versatility.
The quality of the bench is what excites me the most. Even in the Kobe-Shaq era, the Lakers were rarely a deep team. Turiaf has joined the ranks of Millsap, Maxiell, and Bass as reserve energy PFs who can really play, and Sasha has evolved into the guy I trust most to shoot the ball from deep. Ariza is a defensive stopper and brings much-needed athleticism. Farmar/Fisher is a solid backup PG. Kwame would toughen up this team immediately. We don't even have to play Luke Walton AT ALL!
How good can this team really be? Anytime the 57-win champion of the most competitive conference in recent history is saying "Just wait 'til next year," it could be a very special team indeed.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Sunday, April 6, 2008
The Gasol Effect
No player on the Lakers has been more positively affected by Pau Gasol's presence than Lamar Odom. Friday's game against Dallas was one of Odom's finest efforts as a Laker, and probably the most impressive performance he has had against any team that is not Phoenix. Odom has always been able to pound inside and dominate the smaller Suns, and he looked like that guy again on Friday night against the Mavs.
Without Gasol for the past nine games, Odom looked like last year's player - tentative, frustrated, and stressed. After clanging a jumper or losing a ball out of bounds, he would unveil the Odom Smirk - an infuriating, creepy, and out-of-place grin after making a bad play in a critical moment. With Gasol back on the court, though, the Odom Smirk turned into a happy Lamar smile. Lamar just loves playing with Gasol. He no longer has to be as big of a scoring option, and can instead show off his fantastic interior passing and his ballhandling skills on the wing.
Last night, though, Lamar showed the whole package. For one of the few times I've seen, he simply dominated the game. Instead of tentatively standing 20 feet away while defenders backed off, he charged into the post repeatedly, or drove assertively to force contact. Once the defender came, he either dumped it to Gasol, or ball-faked and went up with his RIGHT hand! His RIGHT!
If Lamar could do this every game, and Sasha could hit 1998 Ray Allen-esque jumpers, the Lakers would never lose. Of course, that's not possible, but it sure was fun watching it for one game. LA is still a team working out the kinks, and it's uncertain how Bynum will integrate when he gets back, but it's easy to forget sometime how incredibly talented Lamar Odom really is. I hope I get the chance to notice that again before the season ends.
Edit: Do you think Pau and Kobe laugh over this play now?
Also, I'm glad I can now laugh about the Smush Parker era.
Without Gasol for the past nine games, Odom looked like last year's player - tentative, frustrated, and stressed. After clanging a jumper or losing a ball out of bounds, he would unveil the Odom Smirk - an infuriating, creepy, and out-of-place grin after making a bad play in a critical moment. With Gasol back on the court, though, the Odom Smirk turned into a happy Lamar smile. Lamar just loves playing with Gasol. He no longer has to be as big of a scoring option, and can instead show off his fantastic interior passing and his ballhandling skills on the wing.
Last night, though, Lamar showed the whole package. For one of the few times I've seen, he simply dominated the game. Instead of tentatively standing 20 feet away while defenders backed off, he charged into the post repeatedly, or drove assertively to force contact. Once the defender came, he either dumped it to Gasol, or ball-faked and went up with his RIGHT hand! His RIGHT!
If Lamar could do this every game, and Sasha could hit 1998 Ray Allen-esque jumpers, the Lakers would never lose. Of course, that's not possible, but it sure was fun watching it for one game. LA is still a team working out the kinks, and it's uncertain how Bynum will integrate when he gets back, but it's easy to forget sometime how incredibly talented Lamar Odom really is. I hope I get the chance to notice that again before the season ends.
Edit: Do you think Pau and Kobe laugh over this play now?
Also, I'm glad I can now laugh about the Smush Parker era.
Friday, March 28, 2008
...Or Was This The Worst Loss of the Season?
Hard to say. Memphis or Charlotte? Which is worse?
Does it even matter?
But hey, at least there was a Chris Mihm sighting. Good job, Gary Vitti.
Of course, Fisher now has a partially torn tendon in his foot, that normally takes 6-8 weeks of rest. He said that his foot had felt a little tight for a few weeks, and he knew something wasn't quite right, but it "flew under the radar." Then he injured it last game. So, your starting point guard feels something wrong in his foot for two weeks, but that flies under the radar? Would this happen in Phoenix? I take back the kudos.
What a miserable game.
Does it even matter?
But hey, at least there was a Chris Mihm sighting. Good job, Gary Vitti.
Of course, Fisher now has a partially torn tendon in his foot, that normally takes 6-8 weeks of rest. He said that his foot had felt a little tight for a few weeks, and he knew something wasn't quite right, but it "flew under the radar." Then he injured it last game. So, your starting point guard feels something wrong in his foot for two weeks, but that flies under the radar? Would this happen in Phoenix? I take back the kudos.
What a miserable game.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Worst Loss of the Season
The Bobcats? At home? Ugh. What else is there to say. Sometimes I forget that with their current roster, the Lakers are just last year's team. And that team wasn't very good. Thanks, Gary Vitti - maybe Pau, Bynum, Mihm, and Ariza can make it back for next season, at least.
More interesting is the ongoing saga of Kobe's rage. He picked up his 14th and 15th technicals last night, for no good reason at all. Yes, he was playing poorly. Yes, so was his team. But he just went off, and though the second technical seemed questionable, he has got to be more careful.
Ever since the finger injury, Kobe has been filled with unbridled rage. (Edit: he has 11 technical fouls in the last 11 weeks, after having only 4 on Jan. 12.) There is only one explanation for this - 'roid rage. Kobe's got to be taking tons of medications to control pain and swelling. At the same time, he is angry all the time. In games, he looks like he wants to throw the barrel of a broken bat at a batter, or at least go and pick fights in back alleys after the game. Maybe he takes Sasha with him, since that guy could annoy anyone he met. Lamar would be too busy smirking nervously in his room.
Henry offered an alternative explanation for Kobe's anger - maybe he spends all his time at home dealing with nagging women, in Vanessa and her mother. "Why haven't you won an MVP yet? How come that Bynum guy is still around after you demanded a trade? Did you repaint Hagrid's cottage like I asked you to? Karl Malone called me again. When are you going to do something about it?"
Yep, maybe that's it. I'd be in a bad mood at the office too.
More interesting is the ongoing saga of Kobe's rage. He picked up his 14th and 15th technicals last night, for no good reason at all. Yes, he was playing poorly. Yes, so was his team. But he just went off, and though the second technical seemed questionable, he has got to be more careful.
Ever since the finger injury, Kobe has been filled with unbridled rage. (Edit: he has 11 technical fouls in the last 11 weeks, after having only 4 on Jan. 12.) There is only one explanation for this - 'roid rage. Kobe's got to be taking tons of medications to control pain and swelling. At the same time, he is angry all the time. In games, he looks like he wants to throw the barrel of a broken bat at a batter, or at least go and pick fights in back alleys after the game. Maybe he takes Sasha with him, since that guy could annoy anyone he met. Lamar would be too busy smirking nervously in his room.
Henry offered an alternative explanation for Kobe's anger - maybe he spends all his time at home dealing with nagging women, in Vanessa and her mother. "Why haven't you won an MVP yet? How come that Bynum guy is still around after you demanded a trade? Did you repaint Hagrid's cottage like I asked you to? Karl Malone called me again. When are you going to do something about it?"
Yep, maybe that's it. I'd be in a bad mood at the office too.
Time for Us to Make Another City Freak Out
OK, so I saw Cavs-Hornets at the Q last night, and damn . . . CP3 is outstanding. Anyone who can make Tyson Chandler and David West look that good is insane. So I got to thinking.
1.) LeBron has always wanted a sick PG.
2.) Chris Paul and LeBron James are "like brothers" -- quote from LeBron. Also, CP3 was apparently there for the birth of LeBron's kid.
3.) New Orleans is in the West, which is by far the more difficult conference.
4.) The Cavs are in the East, which is by far the easier conference.
5.) New Orleans is having trouble filling seats in its arena.
6.) CP3 is a free agent in 2009.
7.) The Cavs have 30M coming off the cap in 2009.
What does this add up to? It's time for us to talk about stealing someone else's best player. CP3 in Cleveland in 2009!
How does this happen? Well, the best part is we don't even have to kick the tires around for a year before we can improve the team. Our current roster just isn't good enough to win a title (I think). But we have plenty of assets. So here's how you do it.
THIS OFFSEASON:
1.) Draft Robin Lopez (if possible). He's basically Andy Varejao, and he has equally good hair.
2.) This, of course, makes Varejao tradeable (as does his expiring contract). So be ready to trade that + Eric Snow's expiring (together, I think they come to 13M). Maybe offer those two plus some draft picks during the offseason to Milwaukee for Redd? That's a fairly enticing package (though teams don't trade within divisions) similar to the LA package that got Gasol (young player + pick + expiring contract). Plus we get similar production to Andy in Robin, while also picking up an outstanding shooter who loves LeBron.
2a.) Alternatively, we could just trade Wally's fat expiring this offseason, plus some draft picks, for Redd or a similar player.
3.) Re-sign Daniel Gibson.
OFFSEASON 2009:
4.) Let Wally's contract (if his is the expiring we keep) or Andy's and Eric's (if we keep them) expire in 2009, along with the expiring of Joe Smith (good vet who'll be good to have around next year) and Damon Jones. That frees up roughly 22M of cap space (probably a bit more).
5.) Max out CP3. That's about 14M a year (I think) which means we inexplicably save 8M while adding one of the top three players in the league.
6.) Kick the tires around on trades for Ben Wallace and possibly Z (30M in expiring contracts the next year).
2009-2010 REGULAR SEASON
7.) Win NBA Championship with impossible-to-defend trifecta of CP3-Redd-LeBron.
2010 OFFSEASON
8.) Re-up LeBron.
9.) Retire Zydrunas Ilgauskas's number.
10.) Laugh as 30M in Z and Ben's contracts (if not already traded) come off the books, while the Cavs retain their dominant core.
This would be the best team in basketball, hands down. Think Pierce-Allen-Garnett is a big three? Try on CP3-LeBron-Redd. I think I just peed a little in excitement.
So now, I'm going to cross my fingers for Danny Ferry to read this and do the right thing (after the Cavs lose to the Pistons or Celtics this year, which I think might happen given what I saw last night.)
1.) LeBron has always wanted a sick PG.
2.) Chris Paul and LeBron James are "like brothers" -- quote from LeBron. Also, CP3 was apparently there for the birth of LeBron's kid.
3.) New Orleans is in the West, which is by far the more difficult conference.
4.) The Cavs are in the East, which is by far the easier conference.
5.) New Orleans is having trouble filling seats in its arena.
6.) CP3 is a free agent in 2009.
7.) The Cavs have 30M coming off the cap in 2009.
What does this add up to? It's time for us to talk about stealing someone else's best player. CP3 in Cleveland in 2009!
How does this happen? Well, the best part is we don't even have to kick the tires around for a year before we can improve the team. Our current roster just isn't good enough to win a title (I think). But we have plenty of assets. So here's how you do it.
THIS OFFSEASON:
1.) Draft Robin Lopez (if possible). He's basically Andy Varejao, and he has equally good hair.
2.) This, of course, makes Varejao tradeable (as does his expiring contract). So be ready to trade that + Eric Snow's expiring (together, I think they come to 13M). Maybe offer those two plus some draft picks during the offseason to Milwaukee for Redd? That's a fairly enticing package (though teams don't trade within divisions) similar to the LA package that got Gasol (young player + pick + expiring contract). Plus we get similar production to Andy in Robin, while also picking up an outstanding shooter who loves LeBron.
2a.) Alternatively, we could just trade Wally's fat expiring this offseason, plus some draft picks, for Redd or a similar player.
3.) Re-sign Daniel Gibson.
OFFSEASON 2009:
4.) Let Wally's contract (if his is the expiring we keep) or Andy's and Eric's (if we keep them) expire in 2009, along with the expiring of Joe Smith (good vet who'll be good to have around next year) and Damon Jones. That frees up roughly 22M of cap space (probably a bit more).
5.) Max out CP3. That's about 14M a year (I think) which means we inexplicably save 8M while adding one of the top three players in the league.
6.) Kick the tires around on trades for Ben Wallace and possibly Z (30M in expiring contracts the next year).
2009-2010 REGULAR SEASON
7.) Win NBA Championship with impossible-to-defend trifecta of CP3-Redd-LeBron.
2010 OFFSEASON
8.) Re-up LeBron.
9.) Retire Zydrunas Ilgauskas's number.
10.) Laugh as 30M in Z and Ben's contracts (if not already traded) come off the books, while the Cavs retain their dominant core.
This would be the best team in basketball, hands down. Think Pierce-Allen-Garnett is a big three? Try on CP3-LeBron-Redd. I think I just peed a little in excitement.
So now, I'm going to cross my fingers for Danny Ferry to read this and do the right thing (after the Cavs lose to the Pistons or Celtics this year, which I think might happen given what I saw last night.)
Friday, March 7, 2008
More evidence against Gary Vitti
Ariza out until the playoffs. Bynum way behind schedule. Kobe calling his finger the most aggravating injury he's ever had.
This is not looking good.
This is not looking good.
Let's all just exhale . . .
So, just finished watching the Cavs game on Tivo. I think I ended up fast forwarding through the entire second half, out of disappointment. For a while, I considered my usual pound-the-couch-hit-the-remote routine, but then realized that there really is no point.
These are not the Cavs.
What do I mean? Well, I know the Cavs are a no-excuses team, which I like. I've always been impressed with Mike Brown and Danny Ferry and how they just do not blame or allow their players to blame back-to-backs or bad refereeing for losses. But, the fact of the matter is that the Cavs just are not the Cavs. What do I mean?
Well, the reason the Cavs made this trade was to increase their defensive presence by picking up a guy like Ben Wallace. A lot of people complain about him not being able to defend the rim, but that's not what Big Ben does. He's best when there's another big man near him protecting he post so that roam and defend players out on the perimeter and then get blocks from behind. Remember that play against Memphis, when he stopped Kyle Lowry from getting the entry pass? That's Big Ben's game. When you ask him to just patrol the paint, you end up disappointed (that's why he didn't work out in Chicago) because he's a bit too small and slow. So, right now, he's hurting because he misses Ilgauskas badly. When Z comes back, Wallace can roam a bit more, and he'll be ten times more effective (not to mention that we'll actually have a second offensive weapon in our starting lineup).
Another reason we made the trade was to pick up a shooter in Wally. His shot seems to be coming around, but he's best when he can operate with less pressure. Having Boobie around as another big shooter will help Wally calm down and stop pressing so much. Same is true for Delonte, who's still learning where he needs to be.
Plus, Andy is just hurting right now. He's clearly not where he should be health-wise. He's not getting to loose balls, he's not able to finish, and he's settling for jumpers. These aren't things that Andy should be struggling at, and the reason he is is just that his explosiveness is not back yet. Having Z back, letting Andy get a bit more rest, and letting him come off the bench (which is his skill set) will really help Andy come around. And as for another injured player, Sasha Pavlovic, people forget what a good defender he was in the playoffs. We really miss his size on the perimeter.
So let's all relax. There is some cause for concern -- LeBron getting a bit too MVP starry eyed and not getting any assists in the first half, for one. As Barkley accurately pointed out at the half, LeBron is at the best when he establishes his teammates as threats early (threes from Boobie and Wally, post play from Z, pick and pop J's from Z and Joe Smith, etc.) and then takes over later. He didn't do that last night, and it really hurt the team. But I think last night may have been a wake-up call for him, and I expect him to play better on Saturday.
Ultimately, the Cavs need to get healthy. I think when everyone comes back, people will see just how good this team can be (with a lot of shooters and low post threats, I think they will be quite good). But we need to get there first. So while it will be frustrating for the next few weeks until Z and Boobie come back, hopefully LeBron will use it as an opportunity to integrate his new teammates. And hopefully Mike Brown will stop starting a 2-on-5 offensive lineup and start Wally and/or Joe Smith, so that we have some semblance of an offense early. That would make it considerably easier for LeBron to not have to dominate from the get-go.
These are not the Cavs.
What do I mean? Well, I know the Cavs are a no-excuses team, which I like. I've always been impressed with Mike Brown and Danny Ferry and how they just do not blame or allow their players to blame back-to-backs or bad refereeing for losses. But, the fact of the matter is that the Cavs just are not the Cavs. What do I mean?
Well, the reason the Cavs made this trade was to increase their defensive presence by picking up a guy like Ben Wallace. A lot of people complain about him not being able to defend the rim, but that's not what Big Ben does. He's best when there's another big man near him protecting he post so that roam and defend players out on the perimeter and then get blocks from behind. Remember that play against Memphis, when he stopped Kyle Lowry from getting the entry pass? That's Big Ben's game. When you ask him to just patrol the paint, you end up disappointed (that's why he didn't work out in Chicago) because he's a bit too small and slow. So, right now, he's hurting because he misses Ilgauskas badly. When Z comes back, Wallace can roam a bit more, and he'll be ten times more effective (not to mention that we'll actually have a second offensive weapon in our starting lineup).
Another reason we made the trade was to pick up a shooter in Wally. His shot seems to be coming around, but he's best when he can operate with less pressure. Having Boobie around as another big shooter will help Wally calm down and stop pressing so much. Same is true for Delonte, who's still learning where he needs to be.
Plus, Andy is just hurting right now. He's clearly not where he should be health-wise. He's not getting to loose balls, he's not able to finish, and he's settling for jumpers. These aren't things that Andy should be struggling at, and the reason he is is just that his explosiveness is not back yet. Having Z back, letting Andy get a bit more rest, and letting him come off the bench (which is his skill set) will really help Andy come around. And as for another injured player, Sasha Pavlovic, people forget what a good defender he was in the playoffs. We really miss his size on the perimeter.
So let's all relax. There is some cause for concern -- LeBron getting a bit too MVP starry eyed and not getting any assists in the first half, for one. As Barkley accurately pointed out at the half, LeBron is at the best when he establishes his teammates as threats early (threes from Boobie and Wally, post play from Z, pick and pop J's from Z and Joe Smith, etc.) and then takes over later. He didn't do that last night, and it really hurt the team. But I think last night may have been a wake-up call for him, and I expect him to play better on Saturday.
Ultimately, the Cavs need to get healthy. I think when everyone comes back, people will see just how good this team can be (with a lot of shooters and low post threats, I think they will be quite good). But we need to get there first. So while it will be frustrating for the next few weeks until Z and Boobie come back, hopefully LeBron will use it as an opportunity to integrate his new teammates. And hopefully Mike Brown will stop starting a 2-on-5 offensive lineup and start Wally and/or Joe Smith, so that we have some semblance of an offense early. That would make it considerably easier for LeBron to not have to dominate from the get-go.
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